Three True Outcomes Baseball: its History and Rise to Prevalence.

15 min readOct 11, 2020

Quick question for you, the fine reader of this article: how many of the following phrases have you heard in a baseball conversation?

“Strikeouts are killing baseball!”
“Just bunt or move the guy over!”
“Home runs don’t win you games in the postseason!”
“All these launch angles and exit velocities are ruining baseball!”
“Stop trying to pull everything, hit it where it’s pitched!”
“Small ball wins championships!”

I’m guessing your answer is 6 for 6, right? Same. Those are just some of the gems you’re bound to see all over the Internet when a team loses a game because they didn’t score a lot of runs. The idea for this article, by the way, came to me after seeing the Twitter reaction to that magnificient Yankees vs. Rays ALDS Game 5, a game where the average fastball velocity was above 97 MPH. That’s right. The average fastball during that game clocked in at over 97. Remember when a starter threw 94/95 and it was considered gas? Not anymore!

Anyhow, I found the reaction to that game extremely interesting for many reasons. The end result was, of course, a 2–1 win for the Tampa Bay Rays, with all 3 runs scoring via solo homers, the decisive one being a Mike Brosseau flyball off of Aroldis Chapman that just got over the left field wall in the bottom of the 8th, on the 10th pitch of the at bat. Many of the final numbers of that wonder of a game were absolutely stunning, especially on the offensive side, and leaning towards a style of baseball many people dislike.

The Yankees and Rays combined for 66 plate appearances in the ballgame. Of the 66, 24 were strikeouts (13 for Tampa, 11 for NY), 7 were walks (3 for Tampa, 4 for NY) and, of course, 3 were homers. That comes out to an astonishing 34 out of 66 plate appearances ending in a strikeout, walk or homer, which is 51.5% of the total. They combined for just 6 hits all game, and half of them were homers. The other 3 were harmless singles. There were 280 pitches thrown, and only 34 (12.14%) were put in play. There were no stolen base attempts. No bunt attempts. No hit-and-runs, no nothing.

It was such a dominant pitching performance for both teams that almost immediately after the game, people (and by people I mean Yankee fans) complained. And while they correctly identified the offense, or the lack thereof, as the reason for their defeat, their anger was misplaced. They chose to aim their critique at the approach the Yankees took against Tampa Bay’s endless stream of disgusting arms, instead of simply recognizing that the Rays just outperformed them.

“But why all this talk about this specific game?”, you ask. Well, like I’ve said, it’s the reaction to it that was fascinating to me. The game was an example of modern baseball pushed to its absolute limits, a barrage of pitchers throwing 99 MPH fastballs and frisbee-like sliders, curveballs and changeups, as every batter walked up to the plate knowing their only chance of doing damage was waiting on a mistake and hitting it 400 feet or hoping the alien-like creatures on the mound missed enough to take a walk, head to 1st base, and hope the next man up could hit one over the wall. It was the culmination of years of baseball evolving to such an extent that tactics that worked just a decade ago are now completely obsolete.

But how did we get to this point?

Let’s do our homework

In case any of you reading this aren’t aware, the Three True Outcomes of baseball (TTO for short) are strikeouts, walks and home runs. They’re called “true outcomes” because they basically remove the variables of defense, batted ball luck and such from the plate appearance by not putting the ball in play. In essence, everything gets reduced to a battle between the pitcher/catcher duo and the hitter at the plate. As far as I know, the term was coined by co-founder of Baseball Prospectus Rany Jazayerli in 2000, in a now famous satirical quote:

“Together, the Three True Outcomes distill the game to its essence, the battle of pitcher against hitter, free from the distractions of the defense, the distortion of foot speed or the corruption of managerial tactics like the bunt and his wicked brother, the hit-and-run.”

TTO-heavy hitters generally tend to follow one basic plan of attack at the plate: wait for a specific pitch you think you can hit 450 feet, take the pitches you can’t put a good swing on, and whenever you do get a pitch you can handle, swing hard. Hitters that go about their at bats like this usually swing and miss quite a bit, hit the ball very hard, and don’t get a lot of pitches to hit if they’re good. So, in other words, they strike out a lot, hit home runs and draw walks. And there’s been a ton of excellent hitters in baseball history who followed the TTO pattern, a lot more than you might think. And there’s also some infamous ones. Let’s take a look at some of them, shall we?

The legendary Babe Ruth, he of prodigious home run power, was not only ahead of his time in terms of hitting the ball over the fence; he was a true TTO hitter about 80 years before the term was even created. During his career (1915–1935), Ruth had a TTO% of 38.67%, galaxies ahead of the MLB average during that time, which never even climbed over 20%. He walked at a crazy rate (19.4%) and hit home runs at an unpredecented rate (6.72%). The most interesting part, however, is that he struck out 12.5% of the time compared to the 8% MLB wide rate, which is 56% more than normal, and retired as the all time strikeout leader. He was the original patient swing and miss slugger.
Mickey Mantle, the greatest switch hitter of all time, was also a heavy TTO hitter, with 40.15% of his PAs ending in a strikeout, walk or home run, way higher than MLB average between ’51 and ‘68. Mantle walked a ton (17.5%), hit a ton of homers, and struck out at really high rates for his era, 17.3%, which got him heavily criticized at the time. He was the first one to pass Ruth on the all time strikeout list.
Rob Deer is one of the most infamous hitters of all time. He played between 1984–1996 and set strikeout marks that seemed impossible at the time, including leading baseball in strikeouts in 4 of his 8 full seasons. Deer struck out in an insane 31.2% of PAs throughout his career, but he also walked quite a bit (12.7%) and was one of the more dependable home run hitters in baseball at his best. The problem was that, of course, his TTO style simply didn’t compute back then. His career 49.05% TTO rate is one of the highest ever, and I can’t help but think he was about two decades ahead of his time.
The only guy who might be more infamous than Deer is none other than Adam Dunn. The man who epitomized TTO for years and still does, Dunn played in the Majors in between 2001–2014, and achieved quite a bit at the plate, with his 462 career home runs. Dunn, however, was and still is infamous for being a strikeout artist, and in his prime, he was one of the purest TTO hitters to ever live. From 2004–2008, Dunn had 5 straight seasons of 40+ homers, 100+ walks and 160+ strikeouts, and all in all, his career TTO% is 49.92%, highest of all time (not counting active players).

Some other famous TTO hitters include Jim Thome, Mark McGwire, Reggie Jackson and Cecil Fielder, among others. Okay, back to the present.

A big talking point for people when it comes to the evolution of baseball over the years has been the dramatic rise of plate appearances that end in one of the TTO. And indeed, as you can see in the graphic below, that’s 100% correct:

As you can see, baseball never hit the 20% mark until the late 40s. In the second deadball era of the mid-late 60s, it went over 25%, only for it to drop again in the small ball, low offense environment that was the 70s. From 1980 onwards however, as pitchers start getting better and better, the TTO% starts going up, reaching 29% in the year 2000, the peak of the steroid era. It drops slightly again in the mid 2000s, only to then take a turn upwards on what seems like a never-ending jump, especially from 2015 onwards, when the TTO% goes past 30%. In 2020, it reaches an astonishing 36.05%, which means over a third of the total plate appearances in MLB end in either a strikeout, walk or home run.

The superficial reasons behind the rise of the TTO are simple to identify: strikeouts. Walk rates have remained very stable throughout baseball history, always in between 7.5% and 10%, and while home runs are becoming more and more common as of late, they’re still a small component of TTO on the grand scheme of things, even if they contribute to the rise of less balls being put in play as well. So the obvious reason at a first glance are the K’s, and it’s actually quite remarkable. Look at the graphic below for the evolution of the K/9 in baseball:

Wow. That looks remarkably similar to the TTO graph, no? Correct. Here are those two overlayed:

The similarities speak for themselves. Even with the rise in homers, they’re such a relatively small factor to TTO all things considered that K’s are still the number 1 driving force behind the lack of balls in play. But why is that? Are batters today simply completely undisciplined free swingers who can’t take a walk? Nope. We’ve already established that walk rates have been remarkably consistent in baseball’s history. Are batters today not as good at making contact as they once were? That has to be it, correct? You’d be wrong. There’s a lot of people wondering why baseball’s changed so much. Let’s see why.

PITCHING IS DIFFERENT

Here we can go back to that Yankees vs. Rays game I talked about at the beginning. Remember how I said the average fastball velo in that particular ballgame was north of 97 MPH? That’s an extreme example, of course, but the average velocity of basically every type of pitch (fastballs, sliders, curveballs and changeups) has increased drastically compared to 15/20 years ago. Consider the average velocity of pitches in 2020:

Fastball: 93.1 MPH (tied for fastest ever with ‘19)
Slider: 84.1 MPH (4th fastest ever, and it was 84.6 MPH in ‘19)
Curveball: 79.2 MPH (fastest ever)
Changeup: 84.5 MPH (fastest ever)

This alone should be an indicator as to why strikeouts are more frequent than ever. Pitchers are throwing harder than ever before, as backed by the data, and I’d bet money that pitch movement has also never been sharper, even if I don’t have the data to back that up. The level of technology used to fine tune mechanics, grips and other things rises by the day, to the point where every pitcher is maximizing their capabilities and sitting 93/94 is regular.

But it’s not just velocity that’s changed; the use of pitches has changed. Take a look at the graph below:

Do you notice something? Yup. There’s been a decline in fastball usage, which has corresponded with an increase in breaking and offspeed usage, particularly sliders. Remember that old baseball idea of “get ahead with the fastball, finish ’em off burying breaking stuff in the dirt”? That idea has been largerly abandoned. Pitchers are throwing non fastballs more than ever, in any count or situation, and not only are they throwing them more, they’re throwing them for strikes. By definition, non fastballs are more difficult to hit than a fastball, always leading to lower batting averages against. A lot of the best hitters in the game are not even seeing 50% fastballs anymore. Think about that for a second. Juan Soto (who slashed .351/.490/.695 for a 200 wRC+ this year btw) saw only 47.6% fastballs in 2020, and almost 20% sliders and changeups.

Oh, and remember the old “keep the ball low” approach almost every pitcher used to follow religiously? That’s gone too; if you watch any modern baseball game, you’ll see tons of fastballs high in the zone. This is done because they complement breaking and offspeed stuff better that way, of course, and also because low fastballs are more hittable now that hitters look to hit the ball in the air. The knee high fastball that used to be a HR preventing pitch is now a pitch that gets crushed, as the Colorado Rockies and the Pittsburgh Pirates will tell you. Of course, high fastballs go for homers when they get squared up as well, but they’re more difficult to hit, and generate mostly flyballs when they are, instead of the groundballs and liners than low fastballs create. So the ball is put in play less.

And as if all this wasn’t enough, the revolution of relievers means starters aren’t expected to throw 110+ pitches over 7 innings in every start nowadays, so not only can they throw harder, they’re fresher. And relievers are fresher and throw full force for 20 pitches. There are no at bats against pitchers pacing themselves anymore. Hitters don’t face the same pitcher 4 times in a single game anymore. The high usage of bullpens across the league makes sure of that. We just saw the Rays bullpen their way into the ALCS, so the strategy simply works.

DEFENSES ARE SMARTER

Remember those groundballs up the middle that mostly used to be hits 15/20 years ago? Those are barely a thing anymore. Why? The shift.

The amount of data available to teams now is, once again, reaching unprecedented levels, and it’s only going to keep getting crazier. There is some level of shift applied to basically every single batter in MLB today, as defenses are aware of the hitter’s tendencies and position themselves to be prepared for it. The shift is the subject of much ire from baseball fans, but we’ll talk about that when we get to it.

Lefties in particular experience a ton of full on shifts, with 50.8% of their PAs seeing one in 2020. Righties only saw it 21.7% of the time in ’20, according to Baseball Savant, but even when something doesn’t qualify as full on shift, defenders are slightly moved over based on the hitter’s profile.

Here’s the shift% for every team in 2020 (again, based on Savant’s numbers):

THE DILEMMA FOR MODERN HITTERS

So where does that leave us, then? Pitchers are nastier, fresher and more specialized than ever. There’s more data available than ever before. Defenses are smarter and better positioned. What in the hell is a hitter supposed to do in order to be successful in a way that’s sustainable and not dependent on getting good BABIP luck?

Simple: hit it hard, and hit it over the defense.

It’s the reality of baseball now. Guys swing hard because they have to. There’s no one who can have continued, stable success by hitting groundballs and running out infield hits anymore, it’s just not possible. And, of course, swinging hard means more swing and miss… and more strikeouts. If you think guys nowadays aren’t skilled enough to cut down on their swings and make contact with two strikes, you’re mostly wrong; they simply know soft contact does not lead to continued success in modern baseball. They also know groundballs are outs, so they look to lift the ball by hitting the lower half of the baseball, which is harder to do than just aiming for center mass, which in turn leads to more swing and miss… and more strikeouts. And they also know if they don’t lay off bad pitches, they won’t get on base, so they look to walk whenever they can; it’s easier than hitting a 89 MPH slider that starts down the middle and ends up in the lefty batter’s box.

Let’s get back into the dynamics of the pitcher/hitter duel. Remember what I said before about TTO hitters being patient and waiting on their pitch? That’s a philosophy Ted Williams himself preached. His book, “The Science of Hitting”, basically begins with the importance of getting a good pitch to hit. Williams also made a point to say that if you have less than two strikes on you and the pitch you see is either not good to hit or fools you, you should always take it. And he was right. How those words went unheard in the big picture for like 40+ years is mind boggling to me. Anyway, back to 2020.

The teachings of Ted Williams are now heavily followed by most MLB hitters. They’re becoming more patient in early counts, willing to take strikes if it’s not a pitch they were looking for. Of course, they don’t apply everything he said; Williams stressed the importance of looking to make contact with two strikes, a technique that’s been used in the modern age by Joey Votto. However, even Votto, one of the greatest left handed hitters of all time, stopped doing it late in 2020, accepting more strikeouts in exchange for a better power output. And you know what? It worked for him!

Going back to MLB-wide tendencies, what does this league wide approach lead to? More pitches per at bat, more strikeouts, more walks, harder and more infrequent contact. Look at this graph below on the amount of pitches per plate appearance since 2002:

You see that? The rate has climbed spectacularly in recent years. More pitches means higher pitch counts, shorter outings for starting pitchers, and longer game times, but those are issues that can be discussed in their own articles.

SO WHAT’S THE FIX? AND DO WE NEED ONE?

It seems impossible to change the direction baseball’s going in. Pitchers are not suddenly gonna start throwing 4 MPH slower on every pitch, hitters are not gonna start walking to up to the plate trying to be Ichiro Suzuki and defenses are not gonna start playing in conventional positions out of kindness. And also, it’s not like this avalanche of strikeouts has reduced run scoring. In fact, it’s risen over the past 2/3 years as strikeouts have skyrocketed. Look at the modern years. It’s not proportional, of course, but still.

And here’s team OPS over the years:

You see that straight line? That’s the average tendency. 2020 baseball is about average in terms of offense at this point relative to the history of the game. The problem in many people’s eyes is not the amount of offense, it’s how the offense is produced.

Is there a solution for this? I’m not sure. A lot of people would love to ban the shift altogether. Me, personally, I’m not sure about that. Most hitters don’t change their approach based on the shift, and a lot of them ignore it entirely. You wouldn’t see guys all of a sudden start to swing like those light-hitting shortstops from the 80s and 90s so they can hit some groundballs up the middle; pitchers are still too nasty to do that.

Lowering the mound? You’d likely increase the levels of offense quite a bit, but the approach wouldn’t change in my opinion. Widening the strikezone? The deadball era would pale in comparison to the numbers pitchers would put up. Shrinking the strikezone? Guys would start walking at a 20% clip. See the issue? There’s no clear solution to this. There’s no magic button you can push to make it 1992 again.

And do we really need change? I’ll leave that question mostly unanswered, because I legitimately don’t know. In many cases, the ingredients of solo homers, tons of Ks and little action on the bases doesn’t make for the most thrilling product for me, but sometimes, like that Game 5, it all comes together to create a classic. And at the end of the day , it’s baseball. I can never truly not enjoy it, because at its core, it’s still the greatest sport in the world, and that’s something that won’t change for me.

And think about this for a second. Baseball has seen many changes over the years. Two different deadball eras, two different hyper offense eras, decades of base stealing and small ball separated by over 70 years. We’re currently experiencing a brand of baseball that will make its mark on the history of this beautiful sport, like all the previous ones before it. Just enjoy the ride, because for a sport that’s played at such a slow pace, one of the most wonderful things about baseball is that it never ever remains static.